Our Target Districts
All Hat No Cattle has run the data and these are the five Texas House Districts we believe are most likely to flip Democratic first. The Texas Legislature redistricted all House Districts after the 2020 census, and like any state controlled by one party, they gerrymandered these districts to keep Democrats from winning. To counter this, we need to get voters to the polls.
House District 112
House District 112, located in North and East Dallas County, is another one of our target districts and is currently held by the GOP. In the last election, statewide Democratic Attorney General candidate Rochelle Garza won this district while Lt. Governor candidate Mike Collier came within a point of winning and Beto O'Rourke came within 2%. The Democratic candidate this cycle is the former Miss Texas, Averie Bishop. A Dallas Lawyer and activist.
House District 37
House District 37 is located in Willacy County, in South Texas, and is part of the Rio Grande Valley. The population is 83% Hispanic which is double the state average. The district is also younger than the state average with an annual household income below the state average. In short, it is a working-class district, where people are raising families. It is also currently held by the GOP. In the last election, statewide Democratic candidate Collier won the district, while O'Rourke and Garza both came within 3%. The Democratic House candidate lost by 1400 votes, or 3.6%. Turnout in this district was 39% in 2022, well below the state average of 46%. Simply boosting Democratic turnout in this district can flip it.
House District 121
House District 121, located in N. Bexar County, is one of our target districts and is currently held by the GOP. In the last election, statewide Democratic candidates O'Rourke, Collier, and Garza came within 2-4% of winning the district while the Democratic House candidate finished 10% behind the GOP incumbent.
House District 118
House District 118, located in S. Bexar County is currently held by the GOP and is a target district. In the last election, statewide Democratic candidates O'Rourke, Hayes, and Garza won the district while the Democratic House candidate lost by less than 2,000 votes.
House District 52
House District 52, located in Williamson County, is part of the greater Austin area and is one of our target districts. Currently held by the GOP, in the last election statewide Democratic candidates O'Rourke, Collier, and Garza all came within 5-6% of winning the district, while the Democratic House candidate lost by 12%. This district has 145K registered voters and turnout was 55%.
